While the situation in Ukraine escalates we have asked our members to share their thoughts on the international reactions to the crisis.
This article is open for updates
The opinions below were written on the 22nd of February. We have decided to publish them nonetheless as they reflect on broader geopolitical questions that have not changed in the past 2 days.
BridgeEurope Blog serves as a platform for reflection and discussion on current topics. The opinions expressed in the blog represent the view of the authors solely and not the view of BridgeEurope.
Caterina:
As the situation in Ukraine continues to escalate, with Russian president Vladimir Putin now rolling out military forces into the the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk under the false premise of “peacekeeping”, eyes are turned to the European Union and the United Nations Security Council. EU leaders, including Commission President von der Leyen, EC president Michel and EP president Metsola have all commented that “[t]he EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine”. EU ambassadors have agreed “in principle” to sanctions against against targeted individuals in Russia and a formal proposal will be tabled today. Germany has decided to suspend the Nord Stream 2.
In an extraordinary meeting, the UN Security Council has called for Putin to stop- or else.
Exactly, or else?
The UN Security Council cannot act as Russia is one of the P5 with veto power and would oppose any action from the UNSC. Germany has still denied supplying arms to Ukraine, deciding to focus on the economic and financial resilience of the country instead. And decision making in the EU is a slow and burdensome process, where divergences between MS always emerge when they least should.
As someone who always talked with skepticism about a stronger European military presence, I do find myself wondering now what Russia must be thinking of the European chit chat, of the ‘strong condemnations’ and ‘intense displeasure’ and ‘deep concern’ for current development. The EU’s self portrayed image as a ‘normative soft power’ is perhaps proving to be its demise. Without the consensus or the strength needed to react to such a crisis at its Eastern borders, the EU is far from being the global power that it dreams (and talks) of becoming. And this is ultimately harming its credibility amongst its neighbors. It will be hard for the EU to win their trust back.
Vlad:
Western Europeans have been ignoring the issue of security for years. With the most armed conflicts happening on what is unfortunately perceived as European periphery (Ireland, Balkan states, Georgia, Ukraine), the core EU countries haven’t felt any meaningful threats to their integrity and sovereignty since the fall of Berlin Wall at the latest. Germany seemingly more so than others.
Despite having been on the frontline of the Cold War for several decades, Germans somehow misinterpret the tragic heritage of their past militarist regimes as a justification to openly disregard the importance of the strong and capable armed forces in a liberal democracy. Instead, Germany and the EU as a whole rely heavily on the United States when it comes to security and defense policy. In the case of Eastern European countries, the American support is necessary due to lack of economic resources to sustain their highly prioritized defenses.
When it comes to the Western Europe, this becomes simply an issue of willful ignorance. After the speech of Russian President Putin at the Munich security conference 2007, or at the latest after the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, it should have become clear that the seeds of friendly partnership and cooperation planted by Putin himself in the early 2000s (e.g. see Putin’s speech in the Bundestag) have by then already rotten while still in the ground. Meanwhile, the shares of Russian gas in the German imports and those of several other countries, have been constantly rising throughout the past decade. And with them, apparently, the share of people who believe that Russia is entitled to some kind of security guarantees and is being threatened by the NATO.
Now, after almost two decades of annexations, hybrid warfare and interventions by Russia, Europe still hopes to calm Putin down by leaving the potential sanctions for the future, discarding Ukrainian requests for military aid and continuing with its unending “condemnations”. French President Macron even went as far as to proposing a summit, where the new security order should apparently have been discussed. With the Putin’s speech, in which he for 40 minutes has been lying about the history Ukraine, a nation, whose heritage dates back centuries before the foundation of Moscow, and Russian army now officially invading sovereign territory of Ukraine, all of this “calming down” has once again been proven a naive attempt to hold on to a geopolitical strategy that doesn’t work and no one wants to admit that.
The EU has become geopolitically irrelevant and it is its own doing. With its immense economic power and potential military capabilities, the restraint behaviour in confrontations with imperialistic and dictatorial regimes and lack of understanding for the smaller countries guided by the eternal principle “si vis pacem, para bellum” are a source of disenchantment in Europe which turns out to be a hypocritical club for those who managed to join on time.
Batuhan:
In this crisis, Turkey, by giving a message of solidarity with Ukraine, stood to play the role of a mediator from the very beginning both as a NATO ally and by using in its special relations with Russia. Turkey continues this process by balancing it on a tightrope due to its fragile economy and weak foreign policy.
Turkey’s MFA rejected Russia’s military operation as “unacceptable,” calling on Russia to immediately stop the “unjust and unlawful action,” voicing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar requested Ankara to close the Turkish straits for Russian vessels.
But the crisis in Ukraine once again showed that Erdogan is measuring his limits, thinking that going beyond condemning Russia for this action and calling it unacceptable could undermine the existing economic relations with Russia. Because Erdoğan considers that this crisis has advantages for his own survival, by aiming to act as a mediator between the parties.
Luc:
It is clear that the days of treating Russia as an ally are over for not just the West but also for many other countries. In this crisis, Belgium will be watched upon due to not only its central position in Europe but also due to the capital of Brussels which is also the symbolic capital of the European Union. For many years now, people have asked the European Union for a stronger approach in its foreign policy and now, the same request will be coming forth even more.
Thus, despite the grave situation, drastic changes will come that many people secretly wished for already. Now, the European Union has a chance to come forth strong and united. Next to that, Europe will also have to invest more in sustainable energy now that relying on Russia for oil and gas doesn’t seem to be an option for the coming months, let alone the coming years.
Personally, I am interested in conflicts and crises. Not because they create chaos or opportunities for the few but rather ask for creative solutions and helpful inventions. In this case, the European Union might not only realize its past achievements and potential force as a Union but might also change its approach towards dangers coming from within. As for Belgium, its citizens might now pay attention to the European Union more than ever, hopefully in a positive way.