By Kübra Ayhan
Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and this operation turned into a war with devastating effects. Russia's intervention in Ukraine has led to extraordinary disasters in Ukraine, such as the killing of civilians, their abandonment of their country, and the destruction of cities. Besides, the Ukraine war affected the security environment of Europe. Sweden and Finland, which are not NATO members, began to be seriously worried about Russia's military actions and applied for NATO membership in order to ensure their security against a possible Russian threat.
Sweden and Finland had for years implemented the doctrine of military non-alignment and neutrality in their foreign policies, and NATO membership was out of the question. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the countries' cooperation with NATO has increased, but there has been no membership process. As of 2014, about 19% of the Finnish population supported joining NATO, while this rate exceeded 50% after the Ukraine war. In Sweden, public support for joining NATO has increased considerably. As a result, the Finnish and Swedish governments met with each other to apply for NATO membership, and formal applications were made on 18 May. This is seen as a political defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has worked hard for years to break up the NATO alliance and has been dissatisfied with NATO expansion. In addition, this expansion in NATO could be one of the biggest geopolitical consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine and rewrite the security map of Europe.
Historical Background
Finland, which has a border of approximately 1300 km with Russia, has been known as a 'neutral' country for years and has long existed as a buffer state. The country came under the control of the Russian Empire in 1809. A century later, in 1917, it declared its independence from the Soviet Union and made fierce resistances to preserve its independence and territorial integrity. Nonetheless, thinking it necessary to stay away from NATO, the Council of Europe and the European Union established by the West as a way of managing the Soviets after World War II, the country signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with Moscow in 1948. Russia-Finland relations were shaped within the scope of this treaty until the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Sweden, which was a regional military power until the beginning of the 19th century, suffered serious territorial losses after the Napoleonic Wars. After that, the country shaped its foreign policy around the "policy of neutrality" and avoided military alliances in order to protect its own country from the devastating consequences of wars. Sweden has not been a party to any war in Europe since 1813 nor has it been a member of any union.
Finland and Sweden’s foreign policies were shaped within the framework of the 'neutrality and non-alignment doctrine' throughout the Cold War period, despite their armed forces contributing to Western operations. But with the end of the Cold War, changes occurred. After 1991 Finland and Sweden became members of the EU and began to establish closer relations with NATO, adapting their military standards and establishing closer relations with the US. The countries became NATO's closest geopolitical partners thanks to their vibrant democracy, strong economy, and armies, although they never joined the organization because of negative public perceptions.
But with Russia’s illegitimate invasion on Crimea in 2014, and increasing security threats from the ongoing war, the countries’ increased capability defences to provide for their own security do not seem to be enough anymore. Finland’s border with Russia and an overall feeling of threat have led the countries’ positions to shift: The war is radically challenging their policy of “neutrality and non-alignment”.
National Politics, NATO & Russia
NATO membership came to the fore in Finnish politics and public opinion, and the attitude of the Finnish people, who were against membership until today, has changed and support for membership has increased significantly.
The Prime Ministers of Finland and Sweden made a joint statement that Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed the security situation of the whole of Europe and the thinking of the non-NATO Scandinavian countries. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has announced that they will join NATO, despite the angry response from Russia. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, who did not favour membership at first, approved her membership application, stating that Russia's attack changed everything. If Sweden and Finland become members of NATO, there will be a historical change.
With Finland becoming a NATO member, NATO’s border with Russia will double, increasing Russia's security concerns. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that it will not leave any NATO membership unanswered, saying that the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO will not bring stability and peace in northern Europe but would have "serious political-military consequences".And economic sanctions come first among the sanctions that Russia will impose. Finland has economic relations with Russia in terms of natural gas, oil and grain products, but after its application to NATO, Russia has already started to impose sanctions.
The participation of Finland and Sweden in NATO will be one of the most important consequences of the war launched by Russia in Ukraine, and the neutrality and non-alignment of the Scandinavian countries for years will come to an end. How NATO enlargement will affect Russia's security and how Russia will respond will become clear in time.
Related Article: OPINION- Why Turkey Might Block Sweden and Finland’s Bids to Join NATO
Kübra Ayhan Kübra Ayhan is an undergraduate student at Hacettepe University, Department of International Relations. She is concerned with the European Union, EU-Turkey relations, and Turkish politics. She is also interested in migration and environmental issues; writes articles on these topics, and participates in projects. She has been a BridgeEurope member since May 2022 and is doing her internship at a non-governmental organization voluntarily.
BridgeEurope Blog serves as a platform for reflection and discussion on current topics. The opinions expressed in the blog represent the view of the authors solely and not the view of BridgeEurope.